On March 28, 2015, Nigerians would be heading
to the polls to choose a president who would
govern them for the next 4 years. Unlike other
countries, Nigeria has a complex political
atmosphere .While Buhari and the All Progressive
Congress (APC) may appear to be gaining
momentum at the moment, there are 5 likely
reasons why Buhari might loose in the coming
presidential election. These reasons
are disused below.
1) The Independence Of INEC Has been
Compromised
The independence of the an electoral body is
sacrosanct in conducting credible elections in
any country. In Nigeria however, the
independence INEC has always been called into
question. From the tenure of Abel Guobadia in
(2000- 2005) to the tenure of Moris Uwu (between
2005- 2010), and even now that Atahiru Jega is
at the helm of affairs, INEC is only as free as the
government permits it to be. Both Abel Guobadia
and Moris Iwu were criticized for overseeing
elections that were not any better than that
organized by the National Union of Road
Transport Workers (NURTW). The reason why
these men failed in their their duty to provide free
and fair elections is not far fetched. Nigerian
politicians will never permit a free and fair
election. And from the dramatic way in which the
February 14 poll was shifted it, appears
President Jonathan might not be ready to permit
credible elections on March 28.
2) Christian Vs Muslim Ideology
Nigeria is one of the most religiously divided
countries in the world and the strong influence
religion has would also come to bear on March
28. This may work against Buhari at the polls.
The misconceptions about Buhari that he is a
jihadist waiting to Islamize Nigeria may be his
undoing at the polls. Nigerians are known to
push religious sentiment above other important
issues.
3) The Nigerian Army Is now A Political Party
Gone are the gallant days of the Nigerian Army .
In recent times the Nigerian Army has become a
shadow of itself. In other countries, the military
separates itself from politics and never blurs that
line. During the Arab spring in 2011, the military
in several Arab countries who had sit –in-tight
dictators lived up to the expectation, they tasked
themselves with protecting lives and property and
did not go further. In Nigeria, the opposite holds
sway, the Nigerian Army has become a product
of our decayed society. A career in the army is
now about looking for juicy postings and ghana
must go bags. Following the manner the Nigerian
Army handled the Buhari certificate saga, it is
clear whose side they are on, the side of OUR
OGA AT THE TOP. The one who can guarantee
them juicy postings and jumbo retirement
benefits, President Jonathan. With a partial
military, Buhari would likely loose on March 28.
4) PDP Is Poised To Win By All Means
If the recent audio tape by Sahara reporters
which purports to record how the Ekiti elections
were rigged in 2014 is anything to go by, then
Buhari has lost even before the March 28
election begins. The People’s Democratic Party
has been in power for 16 years with little to show
for it. The PDP is well known for surrounding it
self with individuals who lack credibility, from
Alamieyeseigha who jumped bail in England by
dressing as a woman to James Ibori and other
politicians who are see credibility as a virtue too
expensive to afford. If PDP can decorate itself
with politicians like these, then Buhari can kiss
free and fair elections goodbye.
5) Tribalism
Tribalism just like religion is another hurdle that
Gen Buhari might be unable to cross. The contest
between President Jonathan of the Peoples
Democratic Party and Gen Buhari of the All
Progressive Party has been portrayed through
the eyes of many as a contest between a
Southerner and a Northerner. Politicians have
also taken advantage of this loophole to
champion the crusade that Buhari is from the
northern part of the country where majority of
Nigeria’s past rulers hail from. They they feel
that all non-northerners should unite and vote
President Jonathan because as a southerner, he
deserves to be in power. Sadly, this view is
shared by many Nigerians and this could make
Buhari loose come March 28.
If Buhari cannot scale these hurdles then he
could be inline to loose the presidential election
for the third consecutive time. CLICK HERE TO READ FULL AND TOUCHING NIGERIAN CELEBRITIES BIOGRAPHY AND SCANDALS
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